In this quantitative study, a distributed lag model with dichotomous variable in its interactive form is applied and its results prove that the link between Chinese imports and Mexican exports to the United States made by Mexico has remained unchanged from 2001 to 2021, in addition to having a magnitude higher than that registered during the first 7 years of the application of NAFTA. At the same time, the statistical figures confirm that the participation of the added value of exports in total manufacturing production has sustained constant growth. Given recent events such as the trade frictions between the world’s two largest economies, the emergence of several mega regional trade agreements, such as CPTPP, RECP and the renewal of NAFTA, etc., the potential reconfiguration of global value chains and supply could become a major challenge for the sustained development of production plants and the Mexican economy.
In this quantitative study, a distributed lag model with dichotomous variable in its interactive form is applied and its results prove that the link between Chinese imports and Mexican exports to the United States made by Mexico has remained unchanged from 2001 to 2021, in addition to having a magnitude higher than that registered during the first 7 years of the application of NAFTA. At the same time, the statistical figures confirm that the participation of the added value of exports in total manufacturing production has sustained constant growth. Given recent events such as the trade frictions between the world's two largest economies, the emergence of several mega regional trade agreements, such as CPTPP, RECP and the renewal of NAFTA, etc., the potential reconfiguration of global value chains and supply could become a major challenge for the sustained development of production plants and the Mexican economy.