global-journal-of-research-in-engineering-j-general-engineering Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering 0975-5861 2249-4596 Global Journals Publishing Group Incorporated 72940 Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation PaulDr. Sanjoy Kumar BANGLADESH, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology 01 03 2011 11 3 31 34

Exponential smoothing technique is one of the most important quantitative techniques in forecasting. The accuracy of forecasting of this technique depends on exponential smoothing constant. Choosing an appropriate value of exponential smoothing constant is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. This paper addresses the selection of optimal value of exponential smoothing constant to minimize the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Trial and error method is used to determine the optimal value of exponential smoothing constant. An example is presented to discuss the method.

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Exponential smoothing technique is one of the most important quantitative techniques in forecasting.The accuracy of forecasting of this technique depends on exponential smoothing constant.Choosing an appropriate value of exponential smoothing constant is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. This paper addresses the selection of optimal value of exponential smoothing constant to minimize the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Trial and error method is used to determine the optimal value of exponential smoothing constant. An example is presented to discuss the method.