Performance Assessment of SARIMA Model with Holt aWinteras Trend and Additive Seasonality Smoothing Method on Forecasting Electricity Production of Australia an Empirical Study

α
Md. Matiur Rahman Molla
Md. Matiur Rahman Molla
σ
S.M. Nuruzzaman
S.M. Nuruzzaman
ρ
Dr. M. Sazzad Hossain
Dr. M. Sazzad Hossain
Ѡ
Md.Shohel Rana
Md.Shohel Rana
α Islamic University Islamic University
Ѡ Rajshahi University of Engineering and Technology

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Performance Assessment of SARIMA Model with Holt aWinteras Trend and Additive Seasonality Smoothing Method on Forecasting Electricity Production of Australia an Empirical Study

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Abstract

Australia is a leading developed country which is indispensable a proper planning and management of power generation. To take a unique planning decision forecasting of electricity production is badly in need so that electricity generation copes with the demand of the electricity smoothly. The main task of this study is to assess the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity generation in Australia. Two time series forecasting methods such as ARIMA and Holt-Winter’s additive trend and seasonality smoothing methods are considered. Applying Theil’s U-statistic as the key performance measure, the study concludes that Holtwinter’s method is more appropriate model.

References

12 Cites in Article
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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Md. Matiur Rahman Molla. 2016. \u201cPerformance Assessment of SARIMA Model with Holt aWinteras Trend and Additive Seasonality Smoothing Method on Forecasting Electricity Production of Australia an Empirical Study\u201d. Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering GJRE-J Volume 16 (GJRE Volume 16 Issue J2): .

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/gjre

Print ISSN 0975-5861

e-ISSN 2249-4596

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GJRE-J Classification: FOR Code: 291899p
Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

June 13, 2016

Language
en
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Australia is a leading developed country which is indispensable a proper planning and management of power generation. To take a unique planning decision forecasting of electricity production is badly in need so that electricity generation copes with the demand of the electricity smoothly. The main task of this study is to assess the performance of two time series models in forecasting electricity generation in Australia. Two time series forecasting methods such as ARIMA and Holt-Winter’s additive trend and seasonality smoothing methods are considered. Applying Theil’s U-statistic as the key performance measure, the study concludes that Holtwinter’s method is more appropriate model.

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Performance Assessment of SARIMA Model with Holt aWinteras Trend and Additive Seasonality Smoothing Method on Forecasting Electricity Production of Australia an Empirical Study

Md. Matiur Rahman Molla
Md. Matiur Rahman Molla Islamic University
S.M. Nuruzzaman
S.M. Nuruzzaman
Dr. M. Sazzad Hossain
Dr. M. Sazzad Hossain
Md.Shohel Rana
Md.Shohel Rana Rajshahi University of Engineering and Technology

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