Causal Relation between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Evidence from India
The dynamic linkage between exchange rate and stock returns has been subjected to considerable attention from researchers worldwide. However the relationship of exchange rate with returns of different industrial sectors has not been much examined. In this reference the present paper investigates the causal relationship of Indian sector based daily returns with Indian rupee-US Dollar Exchange Rates for a period from January, 2007 to March, 2015. The study observed absence of normal distribution, unit root as well as co-integration in the data. Correlation between returns and Exchange Rates was found to be negative. Granger Causality test highlighted bidirectional causal relationship between the exchange rate and stock return for each sector except for Pharmaceutical and Media. Pharmaceutical index reported unidirectional relation running from exchange rate to the industry. In case of Media sector return and exchange rates a unidirectional relation running from the former towards the latter has been observed.
