First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

Article ID

43Z95

First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

R. Schlickeiser
R. Schlickeiser
M. Kröger
M. Kröger
DOI

Abstract

The box-shaped serial interval distribution and the analytical solution of the Susceptible Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-epidemics model with a constant time-independent ratio of the recovery ( ) to infection rate ( ) are used to calculate the effective reproduction factor and the basic reproduction number . The latter depends on the positively valued net infection number as which for all values of is greater unity. This dependence differs from the simple relation . With the earlier determination of the values of and of the Covid-19 pandemic waves in 71 countries the net infection rates and the basic reproduction numbers for these countries are calculated.

First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

The box-shaped serial interval distribution and the analytical solution of the Susceptible Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-epidemics model with a constant time-independent ratio of the recovery ( ) to infection rate ( ) are used to calculate the effective reproduction factor and the basic reproduction number . The latter depends on the positively valued net infection number as which for all values of is greater unity. This dependence differs from the simple relation . With the earlier determination of the values of and of the Covid-19 pandemic waves in 71 countries the net infection rates and the basic reproduction numbers for these countries are calculated.

R. Schlickeiser
R. Schlickeiser
M. Kröger
M. Kröger

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r._schlickeiser. 2020. “. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research – F: Mathematics & Decision GJSFR-F Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8): .

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Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8
Pg. 37- 43
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GJSFR-F Classification: MSC 2010: 30C15
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First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

R. Schlickeiser
R. Schlickeiser
M. Kröger
M. Kröger

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