Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Article ID

T1KTB

Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

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Abstract

Exponential smoothing technique is one of the most important quantitative techniques in
forecasting.The accuracy of forecasting of this technique depends on exponential smoothing constant.Choosing an appropriate value of exponential smoothing constant is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. This paper addresses the selection of optimal value of exponential smoothing constant to minimize the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Trial and error method is used to determine the optimal value of exponential smoothing constant. An example is presented to discuss the method.

Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Exponential smoothing technique is one of the most important quantitative techniques in
forecasting.The accuracy of forecasting of this technique depends on exponential smoothing constant.Choosing an appropriate value of exponential smoothing constant is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. This paper addresses the selection of optimal value of exponential smoothing constant to minimize the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Trial and error method is used to determine the optimal value of exponential smoothing constant. An example is presented to discuss the method.

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Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

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How to Cite

Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul. 1970. “. Global Journal of Research in Engineering – J: General Engineering GJRE-J Volume 11 (GJRE Volume 11 Issue J3): .

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/gjre

Print ISSN 0975-5861

e-ISSN 2249-4596

GJRE Volume 11 Issue J3
Pg. 31- 34

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Submission Received January 20, 2011
Accepted February 17, 2011
Published March 1, 2011

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Article Matrices

Total Score: 106

Country: Bangladesh

Subject: Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering

Authors: Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul (PhD/Dr. count: 1)

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Publish Date: 1970 01, Thu

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