Research
La Resilience Des Regimes Bipolaires Aux Crises De Change : Le Role De La Qualite Des Institutions Politiques
The objective of this article is to analyze the role of the quality of institutions on the resilience of extreme exchange rate regimes to currency crises. To do this, in order to reach our goal, we used a logit regression on the data of 134 IMF member countries during the period 1984-2013. The results of econometric estimates obtained with the logit model show that: using the IMF classification, we find that there is no significant link. But using the de facto one, we find that, the bipolar hypothesis is not verified because, fixed exchange rate regimes decrease the probability of crisis while floating exchange rate regimes increase it. So the resilience of fixed regimes to exchange rate crises is higher than that of floating regimes. However, the hypothesis that the resilience to currency crises of different bipolar regimes is positively influenced by institutional quality is also ver ified. Because, this resilience increases in both exchange rate regimes, with less involvement of the military and religion in politics and the strengthening of the rule of law.
Regime de Change et Croissance Economique : Une Investigation Empirique a Partir du Role de la Qualite Des Institutions
The purpose of this work is to study the roleplayed by the quality of institutions in the growth performance and resilience to crises of the nature of the exchange rate regime. Based on data from 134 IMF member countries during the period 1984-2013 and based on IMF and Reinhart and Rogoff classifications. The results of the econometric estimations obtainedwith the less square generalized (LSG) methods show that, whatever the classification used, the quality of the institutions has a positive influence on the growth performance of the extreme exchange rate regimes (fixed and floating). However, it has been foundthat flexible exchange rate regimes are superior to fixed exchange rate regimes in terms of per capita real GDP growthusing the IMF classification. On the other hand, using the de facto classification of RR, itisrather the superiority of the fixed exchange rate regimesthat has been confirmed.
