Research
Forecasting COVID-19 with Importance-Sampling and Path-Integrals
Background: Forecasting nonlinear stochastic systems most often is quite difficult, without giving in to temptations to simply simplify models for the sake of permitting simple computations. Objective: Here, two basic algorithms, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) and path-integral codes PATHINT/PATHTREE (and their quantum generalizations qPATHINT/ qPATHTREE) are suggested as being useful to fit COVID-19 data and to help predict spread or control of this pandemic. Multiple variables are considered, e.g., potentially including ethnicity, population density, obesity, deprivation, pollution, race, environmental temperature. Method: ASA and PATHINT/PATHTREE have been demonstrated as being effective to forecast properties in three disparate disciplines in neuroscience, financial markets, and combat analysis. Results: Not only can selected systems in these three disciplines be aptly modeled, but results of detailed calculations have led to new results and insights not previously obtained.
Hybrid Classical-Quantum Computing: Applications to Statistical Mechanics of Neocortical Interactions
Several commerical quantum computers are now available that offer Hybrid Classical-Quantum computing. Application is made to a classical-quantum model of human neocortex, Statistical Mechanics of Neocortical Interactions (SMNI), which has had its applications published in many papers since 1981. However, this project only uses Classical (super-) computers. Since 2015, PATHINT, has been used as a numerical algorithm for folding path-integrals. Applications in several systems in several disciplines has generalized been from 1 dimension to N dimensions, and from classical to quantum systems, qPATHINT. Papers have applied qPATHINT to neocortical interactions and financial options. The classical space described by SMNI applies nonlinear nonequilibrium multivariate statistical mechanics to synaptic neuronal interactions, while the quantum space described by qPATHINT applies synaptic contributions from Ca2+ waves generated by astrocytes at tripartite neuron-astrocyte-neuron sites.
