A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

α
Dr. D.V.Rajan
Dr. D.V.Rajan
σ
C.Saravanan
C.Saravanan
ρ
S.S.Thakur
S.S.Thakur
α National Institute of Technology Durgapur

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A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

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Abstract

Load forecasting plays an important role in power system planning and operation. In the present complex power system network under deregulated regime, power generating companies must be able to forecast their system demand and the corresponding price in order to make appropriate market decisions. Therefore, load forecasting, specially the short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for energy efficient and reliable operation of a power system. It provides input data for many operational functions of power systems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and optimal power flow and security assessment. This paper proposes a new and simple technique to calculate short term load forecasting using historical data and applied it to the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) grid operating under Eastern Grid (ERLDC-Eastern Regional Load Despatch Centre), India. This gives load forecasts half an hour in advance. The forecast error i.e. difference between calculated forecast load and real time load is a measure of the accuracy of the system, is found to be lower than other existing techniques like Holt’s Method, Chow’s Adaptive Control Method, Brown’s One-Parameter Adaptive Method.

References

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Dr. D.V.Rajan. 2011. \u201cA Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data\u201d. Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering GJRE-J Volume 11 (GJRE Volume 11 Issue J7): .

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/gjre

Print ISSN 0975-5861

e-ISSN 2249-4596

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

December 10, 2011

Language
en
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Published Article

Load forecasting plays an important role in power system planning and operation. In the present complex power system network under deregulated regime, power generating companies must be able to forecast their system demand and the corresponding price in order to make appropriate market decisions. Therefore, load forecasting, specially the short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for energy efficient and reliable operation of a power system. It provides input data for many operational functions of power systems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and optimal power flow and security assessment. This paper proposes a new and simple technique to calculate short term load forecasting using historical data and applied it to the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) grid operating under Eastern Grid (ERLDC-Eastern Regional Load Despatch Centre), India. This gives load forecasts half an hour in advance. The forecast error i.e. difference between calculated forecast load and real time load is a measure of the accuracy of the system, is found to be lower than other existing techniques like Holt’s Method, Chow’s Adaptive Control Method, Brown’s One-Parameter Adaptive Method.

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A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

Dr. D.V.Rajan
Dr. D.V.Rajan National Institute of Technology Durgapur
C.Saravanan
C.Saravanan
S.S.Thakur
S.S.Thakur

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