A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

Dr. D.V.Rajan

A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

Dr. D.V.Rajan * §

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§ NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, DURGAPUR, WB,INDIA

A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data

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Abstract

Load forecasting plays an important role in power system planning and operation. In the present complex power system network under deregulated regime, power generating companies must be able to forecast their system demand and the corresponding price in order to make appropriate market decisions. Therefore, load forecasting, specially the short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role for energy efficient and reliable operation of a power system. It provides input data for many operational functions of power systems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and optimal power flow and security assessment. This paper proposes a new and simple technique to calculate short term load forecasting using historical data and applied it to the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) grid operating under Eastern Grid (ERLDC-Eastern Regional Load Despatch Centre), India. This gives load forecasts half an hour in advance. The forecast error i.e. difference between calculated forecast load and real time load is a measure of the accuracy of the system, is found to be lower than other existing techniques like Holt’s Method, Chow’s Adaptive Control Method, Brown’s One-Parameter Adaptive Method.

References

17 Cites in Article

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Dr. D.V.Rajan. 2011. "A Heuristic Method for Short Term Load Forecasting Using Historical Data". Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering GJRE-J Volume 11 (GJRE Volume 11 Issue J7).

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GJRE Volume 11 Issue J7

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/gjre

Print ISSN 0975-5861

e-ISSN 2249-4596

Keywords

BOPAM-Brown's One- Parameter Adaptive Method CACM-Chow's Adaptive Control Method HM-Holt's Method RTL-Real time load Mean Absolute Percentage

Classification

GJRE-J Classification FOR Code: 090607

Submission ReceivedOctober 4, 2011
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted October 29, 2011
Published November 12, 2011

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

December 10, 2011

Language

English

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Article Matrices

Total Score: 108

Country: India

Subject: Global Journal of Research in Engineering

Authors: Dr. D.V.Rajan, C.Saravanan, S.S.Thakur (PhD/Dr. count: 1)

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Publish Date: 2011 11, Sat

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Total Downloads: 133

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