Analysis of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014)

Olaniran Oladotun Daniel

Analysis of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014)

Oladotun Olaniran * §

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§ Obafemi Awolowo University

Analysis of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014)

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Abstract

This paper analyzed macroeconomic fluctuations and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The paper employed the Atheoretical Statistical Method of Analysis using cross correlations to examine the co-movement between key macroeconomic variables such as broad money supply, oil price, government expenditure, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate and general household consumption and real gross domestic product in Nigeria. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study and were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The stationary component of the variables was extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) and Band-Pass (BP) filter and then analyzed. The paper found out that all the macroeconomic variables were countercyclical and contemporaneously related to real gross domestic product, except for oil price and inflation where the filters produced mixed results of countercyclical and procyclical relationship with economic growth in Nigeria. The paper suggests effective and better management of macroeconomic variables if the desired level of growth is to be achieved.

References

7 Cites in Article

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1. P Agenor,C Mc Dermort,E Prasad (2000). Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts. World Bank Economic Review
2. P Alege (2004). Macroeconomic Policy and Business Cycle in Nigeria. Macroeconomic Policy and Business Cycle in Nigeria
3. P Alege (2009). A Business Cycle Model for Nigeria: African Econometrics Societ Conference. A Business Cycle Model for Nigeria: African Econometrics Societ Conference, 3
4. Marianne Baxter,Robert King (1995). Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series. National Bureau of Economic Research
5. Robert Hodrick,Edward Prescott (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), 1.
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7. C Mcdermott (1997). An Automated Method for Choosing Smoothing Parameter in the HP Filter. Internationa Monetary Fund

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Olaniran Oladotun Daniel. 2017. "Analysis of Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014)". Global Journal of Human-Social Science - E: Economics GJHSS-E Volume 17 (GJHSS Volume 17 Issue E5).

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GJHSS Volume 17 Issue E5

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJHSS

Print ISSN 0975-587X

e-ISSN 2249-460X

Keywords

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Classification

GJHSS-E Classification FOR Code: 910199

Submission ReceivedDecember 9, 2016
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted January 5, 2017
Published January 15, 2017

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

November 17, 2017

Language

English

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Article Matrices

Total Score: 102

Country: Nigeria

Subject: Global Journal of Human-Social Science - E: Economics

Authors: Olaniran Oladotun Daniel, Olawoye Olaniran (PhD/Dr. count: 0)

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Publish Date: 2017 01, Sun

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