Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014); A Time Series Econometric Approach

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Oladotun Olaniran
Oladotun Olaniran
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Olaniran O.D
Olaniran O.D
ρ
Oladipo A.D
Oladipo A.D
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Yusuff A.S
Yusuff A.S
Ѡ Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology Ibadan

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Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014); A Time Series Econometric Approach

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Abstract

This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The study employed the vector auto regression technique (VAR) to investigate the business cycle effect on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, i.e., shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Business cycle affected growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period.

References

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Oladotun Olaniran. 2018. \u201cBusiness Cycle, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014); A Time Series Econometric Approach\u201d. Global Journal of Human-Social Science - E: Economics GJHSS-E Volume 17 (GJHSS Volume 17 Issue E6): .

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Issue Cover
GJHSS Volume 17 Issue E6
Pg. 85- 95
Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJHSS

Print ISSN 0975-587X

e-ISSN 2249-460X

Keywords
Classification
GJHSS-E Classification: FOR Code: 910199
Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

January 12, 2018

Language
en
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Published Article

This paper examined the dynamic interaction among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria between 1986 and 2014. The study employed the vector auto regression technique (VAR) to investigate the business cycle effect on economic growth and its interaction with government expenditure and money supply in Nigeria during the study period. Quarterly time series data between 1986 and 2014 was used for the study. Data on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), nominal gross domestic product (NGDP), broad money supply (M2) and government expenditure was sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analysis from the VAR model showed that there is a dynamic relationship among business cycle, macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nigeria, i.e., shocks to any of the variables affected all other variables used in the study. Business cycle affected growth and the performance of macroeconomic variables in the study period although its effect lacked persistence throughout the study period.

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Business Cycle, Macroeconomic Variables and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986-2014); A Time Series Econometric Approach

Olaniran O.D
Olaniran O.D
Oladipo A.D
Oladipo A.D
Yusuff A.S
Yusuff A.S Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology Ibadan

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