Can we Predict Inflation in Tunisia? An Analysis Following an Unobserved Components Model

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Bechir Fridhi
Bechir Fridhi
1 University of Carthage

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Empirical analysis on the prediction of inflation is becoming more and focus on advanced economies. At least three factors explain this. First, the predominance of agriculture in developing countries makes it dependent inflation climatic conditions of economic activity (eg, Phillips curve). Then, the limits on the quality and frequency data are often limiting factors. Finally, emerging markets are likely to suffer sudden crises and reversals of macroeconomics variables and it is therefore difficult to identify an economic regularity. However, a growing body of research has begun to analyze the inflation forecasts in emerging and developing leading indicators for inflation.

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No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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Not applicable for this article.

Bechir Fridhi. 2015. \u201cCan we Predict Inflation in Tunisia? An Analysis Following an Unobserved Components Model\u201d. Global Journal of Management and Business Research - B: Economic & Commerce GJMBR-B Volume 15 (GJMBR Volume 15 Issue B2): .

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Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJMBR

Print ISSN 0975-5853

e-ISSN 2249-4588

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GJMBR-B Classification: JEL Code: P44
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May 12, 2015

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Empirical analysis on the prediction of inflation is becoming more and focus on advanced economies. At least three factors explain this. First, the predominance of agriculture in developing countries makes it dependent inflation climatic conditions of economic activity (eg, Phillips curve). Then, the limits on the quality and frequency data are often limiting factors. Finally, emerging markets are likely to suffer sudden crises and reversals of macroeconomics variables and it is therefore difficult to identify an economic regularity. However, a growing body of research has begun to analyze the inflation forecasts in emerging and developing leading indicators for inflation.

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Can we Predict Inflation in Tunisia? An Analysis Following an Unobserved Components Model

Bechir Fridhi
Bechir Fridhi University of Carthage

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