Climate Change and Variability Impacts on Crop Productivity and its Risk in Southern Ethiopia
Climate change and variability coupled with weak utilization of agricultural technologies led to lower agricultural production and productivity in southern Ethiopia. Climate change mainly increases temperature, change of rainfall pattern, precipitation and its short and long-term variability affects agricultural production and productivity. Given the technological and institutional conditions, in southern Ethiopia, the yield of major crops has not shown significant change in productivity over the years. Based on time series, and secondary data, this research aimed to address the crop productivity trend and the likely impact of climate change and variability on crop productivity. The study covered Sidama, Walaita, Gurage, Hadiya, Gamo Gofa, and Halaba. Time series climatological and secondary data of major crop yields used as data sets. Mean difference tests to show the trends, and stochastic production function to analyze the likely impacts of climate change on crop yield were employed. The seasonal rainfall differences posed a negative impact on the mean yield of maize and wheat whilst a positive effect on other cereals, common bean, taro, sweet potato, coffee, and red pepper. On the other hand, the annual average temperature imposed a positive effect on cereals, root crops, and coffee. The stochastic production function revealed rainfall variability and change in temperature on mean yield showed a positive and statistically significant effect. The climate variability showed an increasing trend posing a positive and negative impact on crop yield. To cope up the climate change and its variability, different adaptation, and resilience-building strategies should be plan, and site-specific actions should be implemented to manage the risks and vulnerability associated with climate change.
