Correlations between a New Daily Global Indicator of Human Behavior, Threshold Seismicity, and Solar Activity: Congruence of Energy and Implications
We correlated the daily average energy per earthquake for global seismicity within successive 1 M increments (6.0 M), solar activity as defined by Solar Flux Units (SFU) and a new indices for Reports of Human Conflict Behavior for the years 2009 through 2013 (1,826 days). Events associated with intent (e.g. mobilization) and preparation for confrontation were positively correlated only with the average energy per event for 0.01 to 1 M seismic events and negatively correlated with SFU. The statistical significance of this seismic-behavior correlation was no longer significant statistically if the shared variance with solar activity was first removed. Actual events of force and confrontation displayed the opposite relation (positive correlation with SFU and negative correlation with only earthquake energies in this magnitude range). The shared variance between the behavioural categories and geophysical variables ranged between 4% to 10%. Lag/lead correlations indicated that the daily concordance expanded to about three days before or after the behavioural events. In particular average earthquake energies peaked ~3 days before the behaviors associated with intent for conflict.
