Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul

Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul * §

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Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation

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Abstract

Exponential smoothing technique is one of the most important quantitative techniques in forecasting. The accuracy of forecasting of this technique depends on exponential smoothing constant. Choosing an appropriate value of exponential smoothing constant is very crucial to minimize the error in forecasting. This paper addresses the selection of optimal value of exponential smoothing constant to minimize the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Trial and error method is used to determine the optimal value of exponential smoothing constant. An example is presented to discuss the method.

References

8 Cites in Article

Reference Format

1. A Corberan-Vallet,J Bermudez,E Vercher (2011). Forecasting correlated time series with exponential smoothing models. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 252-265.
2. R Hyndman,A Koehler,R Snyder,S Grose (2002). A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 439-454.
3. Everette Gardner (2006). Exponential smoothing: The state of the art—Part II. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(4), 637-666.
4. Eddie Mckenzie,Everette Gardner (2010). Damped trend exponential smoothing: A modelling viewpoint. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(4), 661-665.
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6. D Montgomery,L Johnson (1976). Forecasting and time series analysis. Forecasting and time series analysis
7. R Snyder,A Koehler,J Ord (2002). Forecasting for inventory control with exponential smoothing. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 5-18.
8. James Taylor (2003). Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend. International Journal of Forecasting, 19(4), 715-725.

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul. 1970. "Determination of Exponential Smoothing Constant to Minimize Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation". Global Journal of Research in Engineering - J: General Engineering GJRE-J Volume 11 (GJRE Volume 11 Issue J3).

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GJRE Volume 11 Issue J3

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/gjre

Print ISSN 0975-5861

e-ISSN 2249-4596

Keywords

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Classification

GJRE-J Classification FOR Code: 099999

Submission ReceivedJanuary 20, 2011
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted February 17, 2011
Published March 1, 2011

Version of record

v1.2

Language

English

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Article Matrices

Total Score: 106

Country: Bangladesh

Subject: Global Journal of Research in Engineering

Authors: Dr. Sanjoy Kumar Paul (PhD/Dr. count: 1)

View Count (all-time): 326

Total Views (Real + Logic): 7330

Total Downloads (simulated): 583

Publish Date: 2011 03, Tue

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Total Views: 7.3K

Total Downloads: 583

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