Educational Aspirations and Inequality: Determinants of High School Students’ Intentions to Pursue Higher Education Across Selected Countries

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Debora da Silva Antonio
Debora da Silva Antonio
2
Marina Silva da Cunha
Marina Silva da Cunha
1 to 2 Universidade Estadual de Maringá

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Educational aspirations shape students’ life trajectories yet remain unequally distributed across socioeconomic and family contexts. This article investigates determinants of high-school students’ intentions to pursue higher education using 2022 PISA data. A multinomial logit model estimates the effects of individual, family, school, and regional factors across ten countries, covering developed and developing contexts. Students with greater cultural and socioeconomic capital, higher academic performance, stronger family and school support, and clearer vocational goals are more likely to aspire to higher education. Cross-national differences reflect institutional, cultural, and economic variation, with notable contrasts between Latin American countries, Finland, and South Korea. Grounded in Human Capital and Social Reproduction theories, the study advances understanding of how structural inequalities and individual expectations interact in shaping educational aspirations. These findings underscore the importance of targeted public policies and early interventions to ensure social origin does not determine educational opportunities.

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No external funding was declared for this work.

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The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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Not applicable for this article.

Debora da Silva Antonio. 2026. \u201cEducational Aspirations and Inequality: Determinants of High School Students’ Intentions to Pursue Higher Education Across Selected Countries\u201d. Global Journal of Human-Social Science - E: Economics GJHSS-E Volume 25 (GJHSS Volume 25 Issue E3): .

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Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJHSS

Print ISSN 0975-587X

e-ISSN 2249-460X

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November 6, 2025

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English

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Educational aspirations shape students’ life trajectories yet remain unequally distributed across socioeconomic and family contexts. This article investigates determinants of high-school students’ intentions to pursue higher education using 2022 PISA data. A multinomial logit model estimates the effects of individual, family, school, and regional factors across ten countries, covering developed and developing contexts. Students with greater cultural and socioeconomic capital, higher academic performance, stronger family and school support, and clearer vocational goals are more likely to aspire to higher education. Cross-national differences reflect institutional, cultural, and economic variation, with notable contrasts between Latin American countries, Finland, and South Korea. Grounded in Human Capital and Social Reproduction theories, the study advances understanding of how structural inequalities and individual expectations interact in shaping educational aspirations. These findings underscore the importance of targeted public policies and early interventions to ensure social origin does not determine educational opportunities.

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Educational Aspirations and Inequality: Determinants of High School Students’ Intentions to Pursue Higher Education Across Selected Countries

Debora da Silva Antonio
Debora da Silva Antonio Universidade Estadual de Maringá
Marina Silva da Cunha
Marina Silva da Cunha Universidade Estadual de Maringá

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