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ReserarchID
9B7S0
Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJMBR
Print ISSN 0975-5853
e-ISSN 2249-4588
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Egypt’s general government debt recorded a precarious level at the end of the fiscal year 2015/16 by 103.2% of GDP. Although the economic reform program has succeeded in putting the debt level on a downturn path, the debt level is still high compared to the other middle income economies countries group and is subject to significant risks. The paper aims to identify the main drivers of the change in Egypt’s general government debt as a percentage of the GDP, starting from 1999 to 2019 by using a multiple regression model. Also, the paper reviews the Egyptian public debt trajectory under different scenarios for the upcoming five years (2020 -2024). The findings of the applied model correspond to the economic theory, as both the previous year debt and exchange rate lead to an increase in the debt level as a percentage of GDP. On the other hand, real GDP growth, interest rate, and the primary balance have a reduction effect. Furthermore, the model is used to forecast the debt level over the medium term under different scenarios. The results show that the debt level as a percentage of GDP is expected to spike in 2020 and then return to the downturn trajectory gradually. Also, the compound shock consisting of the shrink of real GDP growth and exchange rate depreciation will have the most severe effect.
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