Empirical Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Nominal Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in India Using VAR (Vector Autoregression Model)

1
Dr. J. V. Ramana Raju
Dr. J. V. Ramana Raju
2
Dr. Mayuresh S. Gokhale
Dr. Mayuresh S. Gokhale
3
J. V. Ramana Raju
J. V. Ramana Raju
1 Jain University, Bangalore.

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The present study tries to establish a causal relationship between the nominal exchange rate and foreign direct investment in India using a time series data between 1992 and 2010. It tries to understand whether the fluctuation in the exchange rate in turn causes the change in the quantum of foreign direct investments inflows and vice-versa which is of enormous importance in the wake of unprecedented depreciation of Indian Rupee against US dollar. Our analysis uses unit root test and Johenson cointegration test to show whether the variables under consideration exhibit stationarity and a long run association respectively. The test indicates absence of any long term association between the two variables under consideration. In the present context it appears that the data is not stationary at level and is stationary at first difference. The Vector Auto regression (VAR) model depicts that the coefficients do not have any long run association.

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References

  1. C Chandrasekhar,Jayati Ghosh (2012). Finance and the Elusive Recovery: Lessons for Emerging Markets from South Korea and Thailand: C. P. Chandrasekhar and Jayati Ghosh.
  2. Jose Campa (1993). Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States Under Exchange Rate Uncertainty.
  3. R Caves (1989). Exchange Rate Movements and Foreign Direct Investment in the United states.
  4. D Cushmann (1985). Real Exchange Rate Risk: Expectations and the level of direct Investment.
  5. K Dewenter (1995). Do Exchange Rates Changes drive Foreign Direct Investment?.
  6. Frenkel Jeffrey,Kenneth Froot (1987). Using Survey data to test standard propositions regarding Exchange rate expectations.
  7. K Froot,J Stein (1991). Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach.
  8. Harris Ravenscroft,D (1991). The role of acquisition in Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from US Stock Market.
  9. Mcculloch (1989). Japanese Investment in the United States.
  10. D Swenson (1993). Foreign Mergers and Acquistions in the United States.

Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

Dr. J. V. Ramana Raju. 1970. \u201cEmpirical Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Nominal Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in India Using VAR (Vector Autoregression Model)\u201d. Unknown Journal GJMBR Volume 12 (GJMBR Volume 12 Issue 22): .

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GJMBR Volume 12 Issue 22
Pg. 74- 79
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The present study tries to establish a causal relationship between the nominal exchange rate and foreign direct investment in India using a time series data between 1992 and 2010. It tries to understand whether the fluctuation in the exchange rate in turn causes the change in the quantum of foreign direct investments inflows and vice-versa which is of enormous importance in the wake of unprecedented depreciation of Indian Rupee against US dollar. Our analysis uses unit root test and Johenson cointegration test to show whether the variables under consideration exhibit stationarity and a long run association respectively. The test indicates absence of any long term association between the two variables under consideration. In the present context it appears that the data is not stationary at level and is stationary at first difference. The Vector Auto regression (VAR) model depicts that the coefficients do not have any long run association.

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Empirical Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Nominal Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in India Using VAR (Vector Autoregression Model)

Dr. Mayuresh S. Gokhale
Dr. Mayuresh S. Gokhale
J. V. Ramana Raju
J. V. Ramana Raju

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