Fat Tails Value at Risk and the Palladium Returns

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Jianhua Ding
Jianhua Ding
2
Turen Guo
Turen Guo
3
Bin Guo
Bin Guo

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GJMBR Volume 18 Issue B3

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The past decade has witnessed the rapid growing of the world palladium market. Thus, it is even more important to develop effective quantitative tools for risk management of palladium assets at this moment. In this paper, we investigate five different types of widely-used statistical distributions and employ the industry standard risk measurement, Value at Risk, for risk management of daily palladium spot returns. We first apply four different criteria to compare the goodness of fit of the five distributions, and then calculate the VaRs based on the parameters estimated from the first step. Our results indicate the Skewed t distribution has the best in-sample fitting and generate VaR values closest to the nonparametric historical VaR values.

Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

Jianhua Ding. 2018. \u201cFat Tails Value at Risk and the Palladium Returns\u201d. Global Journal of Management and Business Research - B: Economic & Commerce GJMBR-B Volume 18 (GJMBR Volume 18 Issue B3): .

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Issue Cover
GJMBR Volume 18 Issue B3
Pg. 11- 16
Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJMBR

Print ISSN 0975-5853

e-ISSN 2249-4588

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GJMBR-B Classification: JEL Code: C46; C58; G10
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v1.2

Issue date

May 18, 2018

Language

English

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The past decade has witnessed the rapid growing of the world palladium market. Thus, it is even more important to develop effective quantitative tools for risk management of palladium assets at this moment. In this paper, we investigate five different types of widely-used statistical distributions and employ the industry standard risk measurement, Value at Risk, for risk management of daily palladium spot returns. We first apply four different criteria to compare the goodness of fit of the five distributions, and then calculate the VaRs based on the parameters estimated from the first step. Our results indicate the Skewed t distribution has the best in-sample fitting and generate VaR values closest to the nonparametric historical VaR values.

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Fat Tails Value at Risk and the Palladium Returns

Turen Guo
Turen Guo
Jianhua Ding
Jianhua Ding
Bin Guo
Bin Guo

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