First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

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r._schlickeiser
r._schlickeiser
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R. Schlickeiser
R. Schlickeiser
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M. Kröger
M. Kröger

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First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate Banner
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The box-shaped serial interval distribution and the analytical solution of the Susceptible Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-epidemics model with a constant time-independent ratio of the recovery (µ 0 ) to infection rate (a 0 ) are used to calculate the effective reproduction factor and the basic reproduction number R 0 . The latter depends on the positively valued net infection number x = 13.5(a 0 -µ 0 ) as R 0 (x) = x(1 -e -x ) -1 which for all values of x is greater unity. This dependence differs from the simple relation R 0 = a 0 /µ 0 . With the earlier determination of the values of k and a 0 of the Covid-19 pandemic waves in 71 countries the net infection rates and the basic reproduction numbers for these countries are calculated.

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No external funding was declared for this work.

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The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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r._schlickeiser. 2020. \u201cFirst Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate\u201d. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - F: Mathematics & Decision GJSFR-F Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8): .

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8
Pg. 37- 43
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Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

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GJSFR-F Classification: MSC 2010: 30C15
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v1.2

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December 15, 2020

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English

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The box-shaped serial interval distribution and the analytical solution of the Susceptible Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-epidemics model with a constant time-independent ratio of the recovery (µ 0 ) to infection rate (a 0 ) are used to calculate the effective reproduction factor and the basic reproduction number R 0 . The latter depends on the positively valued net infection number x = 13.5(a 0 -µ 0 ) as R 0 (x) = x(1 -e -x ) -1 which for all values of x is greater unity. This dependence differs from the simple relation R 0 = a 0 /µ 0 . With the earlier determination of the values of k and a 0 of the Covid-19 pandemic waves in 71 countries the net infection rates and the basic reproduction numbers for these countries are calculated.

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First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

R. Schlickeiser
R. Schlickeiser
M. Kröger
M. Kröger

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