First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

R. Schlickeiser; M. KrÃ¶ger

doi:10.34257/GJSFRFVOL20IS8PG37

First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

R. Schlickeiser *

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M. KrÃ¶ger

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First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate

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43Z95

DOI
10.34257/GJSFRFVOL20IS8PG37

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Abstract

The box-shaped serial interval distribution and the analytical solution of the Susceptible Infectious-Recovered (SIR)-epidemics model with a constant time-independent ratio of the recovery (µ 0 ) to infection rate (a 0 ) are used to calculate the effective reproduction factor and the basic reproduction number R 0 . The latter depends on the positively valued net infection number x = 13.5(a 0 -µ 0 ) as R 0 (x) = x(1 -e -x ) -1 which for all values of x is greater unity. This dependence differs from the simple relation R 0 = a 0 /µ 0 . With the earlier determination of the values of k and a 0 of the Covid-19 pandemic waves in 71 countries the net infection rates and the basic reproduction numbers for these countries are calculated.

References

9 Cites in Article

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

R. Schlickeiser, M. KrÃ¶ger. 2020. "First Consistent Determination of the Basic Reproduction Number for the First Covid-19 Wave in 71 Countries from the SIR-Epidemics Model with a Constant Ratio of Recovery to Infection Rate". Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - F: Mathematics & Decision GJSFR-F Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8).

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue F8

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

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Classification

GJSFR-F Classification MSC 2010: 30C15

Submission ReceivedOctober 12, 2020
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted November 7, 2020
Published November 17, 2020

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

December 15, 2020

Language

English

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