Greek Crisis, Stock Market Volatility and Exchange Rates in the European Monetary Union: A Var-Garch-Copula Model

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Jaghoubbi Salma
Jaghoubbi Salma
σ
Adel Boubaker
Adel Boubaker
α Tunis El Manar University Tunis El Manar University

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Greek Crisis, Stock Market Volatility and Exchange Rates in the European Monetary Union: A Var-Garch-Copula Model

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Abstract

The main objectives of this study are twofold. The first objective is to examine the volatility spillover between seventeen European stock market returns and exchange rate, over the period 2007-2011, in a multivariate setting, using the VAR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model which allows for transmission in returns and volatility. The second is to investigate the dependence structure and to test the degree of the dependence between financial returns using two measures of dependence: correlations and copula functions. Five candidates, the Gaussian, the Student’s t, the Frank, the Clayton and the Gumbel copulas, are compared. Our empirical results for the first objective suggest that past own volatilities matter more than past shocks (news) and there are moderate cross market volatility transmission and shocks between the markets. Moreover, the result on the second objective implies that, considering all the financial returns together, the Student-t copula seems the best fitting model, followed by the Normal copula, both for the two sub-period. The dependence structure is symmetric and has non-zero tail dependence.

References

9 Cites in Article
  1. Taimur Baig,Ilan Goldfajn (1999). Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis.
  2. S Bartram,S Taylor,Y Wang (2007). The Euro and European financial market dependence.
  3. A Boubaker,S Jaghoubi (2011). Detecting financial markets contagion using copula functions.
  4. Handbook of International Economics.
  5. G Karolyi,R Stulz (1996). Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of the U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements.
  6. King Etwadhwani,S (1990). Transmission of volatility between stock markets.
  7. Shiqing Ling,Michael Mcaleer (2003). ASYMPTOTIC THEORY FOR A VECTOR ARMA-GARCH MODEL.
  8. François Longin,Bruno Solnik (2001). Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets.
  9. Oriol Roch,Antonio Alegre (2006). Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas. An application to the Spanish stock market.

Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Jaghoubbi Salma. 2014. \u201cGreek Crisis, Stock Market Volatility and Exchange Rates in the European Monetary Union: A Var-Garch-Copula Model\u201d. Global Journal of Management and Business Research - C: Finance GJMBR-C Volume 14 (GJMBR Volume 14 Issue C2): .

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Issue Cover
GJMBR Volume 14 Issue C2
Pg. 51- 59
Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJMBR

Print ISSN 0975-5853

e-ISSN 2249-4588

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

June 4, 2014

Language
en
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The main objectives of this study are twofold. The first objective is to examine the volatility spillover between seventeen European stock market returns and exchange rate, over the period 2007-2011, in a multivariate setting, using the VAR (1)-GARCH (1,1) model which allows for transmission in returns and volatility. The second is to investigate the dependence structure and to test the degree of the dependence between financial returns using two measures of dependence: correlations and copula functions. Five candidates, the Gaussian, the Student’s t, the Frank, the Clayton and the Gumbel copulas, are compared. Our empirical results for the first objective suggest that past own volatilities matter more than past shocks (news) and there are moderate cross market volatility transmission and shocks between the markets. Moreover, the result on the second objective implies that, considering all the financial returns together, the Student-t copula seems the best fitting model, followed by the Normal copula, both for the two sub-period. The dependence structure is symmetric and has non-zero tail dependence.

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Greek Crisis, Stock Market Volatility and Exchange Rates in the European Monetary Union: A Var-Garch-Copula Model

Adel Boubaker
Adel Boubaker
Jaghoubbi Salma
Jaghoubbi Salma Tunis El Manar University

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