Nature of Arrhythmia in the Cyclicity Activity of Sun
The dynamics of fluctuations in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (CR) are studied at different phases of the solar cycle. In the previously introduced parameter of CR fluctuations on rotation No 2597 (January 2024), a precursor (https://www.forshock.ru/ predlong.html) of the beginning of the maximum of the new 25th cycle was registered. Taking into account the lead time of the medium-term forecast Δτ=2(±1) of the solar rotations, the beginning of the maximum of the 25th cycle was expected for February-March 2024. The indicator (marker) of the beginning of the maximum of the new 25th cycle is a significantly low – diagnostic value of the CR fluctuation parameter on rotation No 2599, in March 2024, which was confirmed by the results of operative monitoring. The question of further development of the new 25th cycle remains relevant. CR data (https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/) indicate a sharp and deep (≈20%) decrease in CR intensity at the end of the 24th cycle, comparable to … cycle 21 in the early 80s (1982). Most likely, the 11-year cyclicity of the Sun is restored, possibly at a level above average. Obviously, this indicates a LOCAL nature of the failure in cycles 23-24. The previously established conservatism or invariance of the binary relationship “amplitude-duration” of the 11-year cycle is violated in the two previous cycles 23 and 24. The maximum area (“energy content” or luminosity – “solar constant”) occurs in cycle 23, with a subsequent significant decrease in energy content – luminosity of cycle 24. Nevertheless, the INVARIANT with the characteristic scale of the duration of the “physical” 22-year cycle is preserved. In this case, after a local failure of the 11-year cyclicity in the 23-24 cycles, the 11-year cyclicity in the new 25 cycle should be restored! It is important to note that the Lorenz system (according to G.V. Kuklin et al.) is capable of describing various stages of the system’s evolution: from the emergence of convection – the appearance of self-oscillations (11-year cyclicity) when the critical temperature value is exceeded, to the disappearance of self-oscillations (entering to the chaotic regime of the “strange attractor”) when the temperature decreases. As it happened during the “Maunder minimum”, essentially – a parametric “phase catastrophe”. There are, obviously – extremal cases. There is also an intermediate situation or ARRHYTHMIA in the cyclic activity of the Sun: a “local” failure, when the invariant of the 22-year cycle is preserved (modern cycles 23-24 and 19-20) and a “global” failure, when the invariant of the 22-year cycle is violated (“Dalton minimum” and “Gleissberg minimum”). At the same time, both the emergence and violation of cyclicity are organically linked by a common approach to the cyclic activity of the Sun as a mechanism for regulating energy. In this, in our opinion, lies the nature of solar cyclicity, 11-year and 22-year: solar cyclicity is nothing other than a self-oscillating mechanism of “release” – regulation of energy (in the convective zone) of the Sun, stabilizing its temperature.
