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On Baysian Estimation of Loss of Estimators of Unknown Parameter of Binomial Distribution

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On Baysian Estimation of Loss of Estimators of Unknown Parameter of  Binomial Distribution

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Abstract

This paper aims at the Bayesian estimation for the loss and risk functions of the unknown parameter of the binomial distribution under the loss function which is different from that given by Rukhin (1988). The estimation involves beta distribution, a natural conjugate prior density function for the unknown parameter. Estimators obtained are conservatively biased and have finite frequentist risk.

I. INTRODUCTION

Rukhin(1988) introduced a loss function given by,

( 1.1 ) L ( θ , δ , γ ) = w ( θ , δ ) γ − 1 2 + γ 1 2

Where, γ is an estimator of the loss function w ( θ , δ ) , which is non-negative. Guobing(2016) used this loss function and derived estimates of the loss and risk function of the parameter of Maxwell's distribution. Singh (2021) took various forms of w ( θ , δ ) and derived estimates of the loss and risk function of the parameter of a continuous distribution which gives Half-normal distribution, Rayleigh distribution and Maxwell's distribution as particular cases. Rukhin(1988) considered the Bayesian estimation of the unknown parameter θ of the binomial distribution by taking

( 1.2 ) w ( θ , δ ) = ( θ − δ ) 2

In this paper, Bayes estimate of the unknown parameter θ of the binomial distribution has been obtained by replacing w ( θ , δ ) by w 1 ( θ , δ ) given by

( 1.3 ) w 1 ( θ , δ ) = h ( θ ) ( θ − δ ) 2

Where,

( 1.4 ) h ( θ ) = 1 { θ ( 1 − θ ) }

II. ESTIMATION OF LOSS AND RISK OF THE PARAMETER OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Let the random variable X follows binomial distribution with parameters n and θ . Where θ is unknown satisfying 0 ≤ θ ≤ 1 . The prior p.d.f of θ , denoted by π 1 ( θ ) is as follows:

( 2.1 ) π 1 ( θ ) = { θ α − 1 ( 1 − θ ) β − 1 B ( α , β ) if  α ≥ 0 , β ≥ 0 , 0 < θ < 1 0 Otherwise

Under the assumption of prior probability density function (p.d.f.) for θ as above, Bayes estimates of θ derived by Rukhin (1988) were as follows: For α ≥ 0 , β ≥ 0

( 2.2 ) δ B ( X ) = ( X + α ) ( n + α + β )
( 2.3 ) γ B ( X ) = ( X + α ) ( n + β − X ) ( n + α + β ) 2 ( n + α + β + 1 )

and for α = 0 , β = 0

( 2.4 ) δ 0 ( X ) = X n
( 2.5 ) γ 0 ( X ) = X ( n − X ) n 2 ( n + 1 )

It was shown that

( 2.6 ) E θ L ( θ , δ 0 , γ 0 ) = ∞

Under, w 1 ( θ , δ ) as above, the corresponding Bayes estimate is given by, For α ≥ 0 , β ≥ 0

( 2.7 ) δ 1 B ( X ) = E { θ h ( θ ) / X } E { h ( θ ) / X }
( 2.8 ) δ 1 B ( X ) = ( X + α − 1 ) A − 2

On simplification, provided, A = n + α + β > 2 and,

( 2.9 ) γ 1 B ( X ) = E { θ h ( θ ) / X } − { δ 1 B ( X ) } 2 E { h ( θ ) / X }
( 2.10 ) γ 1 B ( X ) = 1 A − 2

on simplification, provided, A = n + α + β > 2

We, see that, in this case γ 1 B ( X ) does not depend upon X and is function of n , α and β

E θ L ( θ , δ 1 B , γ 1 B ) = E θ [ h ( θ ) ( θ − ( X + α − 1 ) ( A − 2 ) − 1 ) 2 ] ( A − 2 ) 1 / 2 + ( A − 2 ) − 1 / 2

Or,

( 2.12 ) E θ L ( θ , δ 1 B , γ 1 B ) = [ n + h ( θ ) ( 1 − α + θ ( α + β − 2 ) ) 2 ] ( A − 2 ) − 3 / 2 + ( A − 2 ) − 1 / 2 < ∞

In this case,

( 2.13 ) R ( θ , δ 1 B ) = E θ { h ( θ ) ( θ − δ 1 B ) } 2

Or,

( 2.14 ) R ( θ , δ 1 B ) = [ n + h ( θ ) { 1 − α + θ ( α + β − 2 ) } 2 ] ( A − 2 ) − 2

As mentioned by Keifer (1977), an estimator γ ( X ) is said to be conservatively biased if,

( 2.15 ) E θ { γ ( X ) } ≥ R ( θ , δ ) = E θ { w ( θ , δ ) }

In the light of this condition, γ 0 ( X ) as given by Rukhin (1988) is not conservatively biased. In this case,

( 2.16 ) E θ { γ 1 B ( X ) } = 1 A − 2

Let δ 0 B ( X ) and γ 0 B ( X ) be values of δ 1 B ( X ) and γ 1 B ( X ) , respectively when, α = β = 0 . If possible let,

( 2.17 ) E θ { γ 0 B ( X ) } ≥ R ( θ , δ 0 B )

which holds if,

( 2.18 ) − 2 θ 2 + 2 θ − 1 ≥ 0

which is a contradiction, since 0 < θ < 1 and maximum value of − 2 θ 2 + 2 θ − 1 is − 1 2 which corresponds to θ = 1 2 . Moreover, − 2 θ 2 + 2 θ − 1 = − 1 for θ = 1 and θ = 0 . Thus, γ 0 B ( X ) is not conservatively biased.

When α = β = 1 , we have,

( 2.19 ) E θ { γ 1 B ( X ) } = R ( θ , δ 1 B ) = 1 n

When, α = β > 1 , θ = 0.5

( 2.20 ) E θ { γ 1 B ( X ) } ≥ R ( θ , δ 1 B )

When, α = β > 1 , θ ≠ 0.5

( 2.21 ) E θ { γ 1 B ( X ) } ≥ R ( θ , δ 1 B )

which holds if

( 2.22 ) α ≤ 1 + g ( θ )

.Where,

( 2.23 ) g ( θ ) = 2 θ ( 1 − θ ) ( 2 θ − 1 ) 2

g ( θ ) is a monotonically increasing function of θ over the set S = ( 0 , 1 ) − { 0.5 } . Hence, γ 1 B ( X ) as above, presents a valid 'frequentist report' as mentioned by Berger(1985).

The results are summarized in the following:

THEOREM. Let ( δ 1 B , γ 1 B ) be Bayes estimators of the unknown parameter θ of the binomial distribution under the loss function L ( θ , δ , γ ) = 1 { θ ( 1 − θ ) } ( θ − δ ) 2 γ − 1 2 + γ 1 2 and beta prior density with known parameters α and β . Then, the frequentist risk E θ L ( θ , δ 1 B , γ 1 B ) is finite for all values of α and β provided 0 < θ < 1 . For α = β = 0 , γ 1 B ( X ) is not conservatively biased. The estimator γ 1 B ( X ) is conservatively biased for α = β = 1 and for α = β > 1 satisfying α ≤ 1 + 2 θ ( 1 − θ ) ( 2 θ − 1 ) 2 , θ ≠ 0.5 . However, if α = β > 1 , θ = 0.5 , γ 1 B ( X ) is also conservatively biased.

References

6 Cites in Article
  1. 1. (2022). Unknown Title. Global Journals
  2. 2. J Berger (1985). The frequentist viewpoint and conditioning. Proceedings of the Berkley Conference in Honor of Jerry Neyman and Jack Keifer, 15-44.
  3. 3. Guobing Fan (2016). Estimation of the Loss and Risk Functions of parameter of Maxwell's distribution. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 4(4), 129-133.
  4. 4. J Keifer (1977). Conditional Confidence Statements and Confidence Estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 72(360), 789.
  5. 5. Randhir Singh (2021). On Bayesian Estimation of Loss and Risk Functions. Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 9(3), 73-77.
  6. 6. Andrew Rukhin (1988). Estimating the Loss of Estimators of a Binomial Parameter. Biometrika, 75(1), 153.

Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Randhir Singh. 2026. "On Baysian Estimation of Loss of Estimators of Unknown Parameter of Binomial Distribution". Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - F: Mathematics & Decision GJSFR-F Volume 22 (GJSFR Volume 22 Issue F4).

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Bayesian estimation of unknown binomial parameters for improved statistical analysis.
Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

Keywords
Classification
GJSFR-F Classification DDC Code: 843.7 LCC Code: PQ2165.C5
Version of record
v1.2

Issue date
November 1, 2022

Language
English
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On Baysian Estimation of Loss of Estimators of Unknown Parameter of Binomial Distribution

Randhir Singh
Randhir Singh