Research
Impacts of Peso Depreciation and Changes in Other Business and Economic Variables on Aggregate Output in Argentina
This paper examines the effects of real depreciation of the Argentine peso and changes in other relevant macroeconomic variables on real GDP in Argentina. The results show that real GDP is negatively influenced by real depreciation of the peso, the real interest rate and the expected inflation rate and positively affected by the ratio of government spending or government deficit to GDP, the real stock price, the real oil price and U.S. real GDP. Therefore, recent depreciation of the peso hurts real GDP whereas recent rise in the stock price helps real GDP. Relatively high interest rates reduce real GDP through personal consumption spending, investment spending and net exports.
Study of the Trilemma Policies and Their Impacts on Inflation, Growth and Volatility for Brazil
This paper finds support for the trilemma for Brazil, suggesting that the three trilemma policies are binding and constrained. Adopting an independently floating exchange rate regime, Brazil has pursued the policy combination of monetary independence and financial integration in recent years. More exchange rate stability or more financial integration reduces the inflation rate, and more financial integration reduces inflation volatility. More monetary independence reduces the growth rate. More financial integration reduces output volatility. Hence, more exchange rate stability and more financial integration produce positive benefits whereas more monetary independence yields a negative impact on the growth rate.
