Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

1
Eze, C. M.
Eze, C. M.
2
Eze
Eze
3
C. M.
C. M.
4
Asogwa
Asogwa
5
O. C.
O. C.
6
Okonkwo
Okonkwo
7
C. R.
C. R.
1 University of Nigeria Nsukka

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This study was carried out using the monthly (January 2007 to December 2017 with a total of 108 data points) reported road traffic crashes along the roads connecting the main city of Enugu State Nigeria. In this work, we gave a general overview of the three basic aspects of exponential smoothing models proposed with their applications on the cases of road traffic crashes (accident). The relationship between autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models was also given. Using a grid search method for the estimation of smoothing parameters, the best exponential smoothing models for each of the cases was identified based on the Mean square error (MSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The Holt-Winter (Triple) exponential smoothing model expounded by Peter Winter (1960) yielded optimum value in each of the measures for each route since the series exhibit both trend and seasonality.

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No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

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Not applicable for this article.

Eze, C. M.. 2020. \u201cModeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach\u201d. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - I: Interdisciplinary GJSFR-I Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1): .

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1
Pg. 31- 36
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Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

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GJSFR-I Classification: FOR Code: 150703
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v1.2

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February 27, 2020

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English

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This study was carried out using the monthly (January 2007 to December 2017 with a total of 108 data points) reported road traffic crashes along the roads connecting the main city of Enugu State Nigeria. In this work, we gave a general overview of the three basic aspects of exponential smoothing models proposed with their applications on the cases of road traffic crashes (accident). The relationship between autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models was also given. Using a grid search method for the estimation of smoothing parameters, the best exponential smoothing models for each of the cases was identified based on the Mean square error (MSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The Holt-Winter (Triple) exponential smoothing model expounded by Peter Winter (1960) yielded optimum value in each of the measures for each route since the series exhibit both trend and seasonality.

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Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

Eze
Eze
C. M.
C. M.
Asogwa
Asogwa
O. C.
O. C.
Okonkwo
Okonkwo
C. R.
C. R.

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