Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

Eze, C. M.; Asogwa, O. C.; Okonkwo, C. R.

Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

Eze, C. M. * § Master of Science (M.Sc), Bachelor of Science (B.Sc)

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Asogwa, O. C.

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§ University of Nigeria Nsukka

Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

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Abstract

This study was carried out using the monthly (January 2007 to December 2017 with a total of 108 data points) reported road traffic crashes along the roads connecting the main city of Enugu State Nigeria. In this work, we gave a general overview of the three basic aspects of exponential smoothing models proposed with their applications on the cases of road traffic crashes (accident). The relationship between autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models was also given. Using a grid search method for the estimation of smoothing parameters, the best exponential smoothing models for each of the cases was identified based on the Mean square error (MSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The Holt-Winter (Triple) exponential smoothing model expounded by Peter Winter (1960) yielded optimum value in each of the measures for each route since the series exhibit both trend and seasonality.

References

18 Cites in Article

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Okonkwo, C. R., Asogwa, O. C.. 2020. "Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach". Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - I: Interdisciplinary GJSFR-I Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1).

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

Keywords

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Classification

GJSFR-I Classification FOR Code: 150703

Submission ReceivedNovember 14, 2018
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted December 12, 2018
Published December 27, 2018

Version of record

v1.2

Issue date

February 27, 2020

Language

English

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Article Matrices

Total Score: 150

Country: Nigeria

Subject: Global Journal of Science Frontier Research

Authors: Eze, C. M., Asogwa, O. C., Okonkwo, C. R. (PhD/Dr. count: 0)

View Count (all-time): 273

Total Views (Real + Logic): 681

Total Downloads (simulated): 30

Publish Date: 2018 12, Thu

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Total Views: 681

Total Downloads: 30

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