Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

Eze, C. M.

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Eze

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C. M.

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Asogwa

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O. C.

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Okonkwo

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C. R.

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University of Nigeria

Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach

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Abstract

This study was carried out using the monthly (January 2007 to December 2017 with a total of 108 data points) reported road traffic crashes along the roads connecting the main city of Enugu State Nigeria. In this work, we gave a general overview of the three basic aspects of exponential smoothing models proposed with their applications on the cases of road traffic crashes (accident). The relationship between autoregressive integrated moving average models and exponential smoothing models was also given. Using a grid search method for the estimation of smoothing parameters, the best exponential smoothing models for each of the cases was identified based on the Mean square error (MSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The Holt-Winter (Triple) exponential smoothing model expounded by Peter Winter (1960) yielded optimum value in each of the measures for each route since the series exhibit both trend and seasonality.

References

18 Cites in Article

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Funding

No external funding was declared for this work.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethical Approval

No ethics committee approval was required for this article type.

Data Availability

Not applicable for this article.

How to Cite This Article

Eze, C. M.. 2020. \u201cModeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach\u201d. Global Journal of Science Frontier Research - I: Interdisciplinary GJSFR-I Volume 20 (GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1).

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GJSFR Volume 20 Issue I1

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Journal Specifications

Crossref Journal DOI 10.17406/GJSFR

Print ISSN 0975-5896

e-ISSN 2249-4626

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GJSFR-I Classification FOR Code: 150703

Submission ReceivedNovember 14, 2018
Peer Review Double Blind
Handling Editor
Accepted December 12, 2018
Published December 27, 2018

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v1.2

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February 27, 2020

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